Jim Rogers is bullish on agriculture, gold, and silver

Jim Rogers, the legendary investor famous for co-founding the Quantum Fund with George Soros, dwelt on COVID-19, QE, and commodities on a call co-promoted by ETF Strategy.

The event coincided with the relisting of the Market Access Rogers International Commodity Index UCITS ETF (LON: RICI) on the London Stock Exchange.

The ETF returns to London after a hiatus of four years. China Post Global had canceled the ETF’s LSE listing in 2016 due to low trading volume.

“Interest in gold and commodities has increased sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic began,” explained Danny Dolan, Managing Director of China Post Global. “Investors are seeking a safe haven in gold, and an inflation hedge in broad commodity indices after huge quantitative easing measures.”

Jim Rogers designed the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) in 1996/97.

Here are his views on the virus, helicopter stimulus and commodities.

On COVID-19

Rogers noted the extremely adverse impact of COVID-19 on global economies, saying it was unparalleled since the days of the Depression.

Encouragingly, he thinks this is likely only to be temporary, and that the world will bounce back.

He also made the important qualification that though production will rebound, it may not recover to pre-virus levels for quite a while.

Quantitative easing and stimulus

However, it appears that Rogers is more worried about the debasement of the global financial system that started after the 2008 crisis through fiscal and monetary stimulus measures by countries around the world.

Rogers is alarmed that what was then admittedly an “experiment” is continuing due to short-sighted political motivations, with no thought for long-term implications.

He claimed that artificially induced, low interest rates had fuelled hugely leveraged bets by sovereigns and corporates. These positions could unwind with dire consequences including insolvencies and people’s loss of confidence in the financial system.

- Source, invezz.com

Legendary investor Jim Rogers is long on the dollar in the short-term, and is buying more silver than gold

It’s an interesting dynamic we’re seeing in the currency markets at the moment: the Fed is pledging to print trillions of new dollars, and yet the value of the dollar itself is holding up remarkably well against the basket of currencies it’s usually measured against.

Of course, this is in part because other central banks are printing money too and so the effects of greater amounts of fiat currency all around cancel each other out, but it’s also because the dollar is considered the world’s safe-haven currency, the go-to cash denomination in times of stress.

It’s on that basis that legendary investor Jim Rogers, the originator of the Rogers International Commodity Index, is holding dollars, at least for now.

He might not hold them for long though, judging by the comments he made recently in a webinar hosted by NTree.

In the opening remarks of a short exposition about the current opportunities in commodities markets, Rogers pointed out that yields on 30-Year treasuries are trading at all-time lows, as demand for long-dated US-dollar denominated debt continues as part of a wider flight into bonds. How long that dynamic will last though, remains open to question.

“The dollar is not a safe-have,” said Rogers. “The US is the biggest debtor in the history of the world.”

So far, the edifice remains intact, but with the huge new debts being matched for size only by the huge money printing operation, it’s only a matter of time.

“Eventually people are going to say we are not going to take this garbage any more,” Rogers added0.

“And we will resume a recession. Huge damage is being done. Huge debts at the induvial as well as the government level are being built up and we’re all going to have to pay the price.”

Rogers is well aware that modern monetary theory allows for a controlled amount of money printing, but he is dismissive of the validity of the theory per se, the attractions of which he likens to Marxism in terms both of its appeal and of the illusory nature of its prescriptions.

“Printing money has never been bad for stocks and bonds but it does affect the price of real goods,” he says. “So I expect the rally to continue but eventually it will end and we’ll get new lows.”

What is the canny investor supposed to make of this new and frightening dynamic?

Rogers is clear enough.

“Last year I started to buy gold and silver,” he says. “I continue to buy gold and silver, and of the two I’m buying more silver now than gold because on a historic basis it’s much cheaper. Silver is down 80% or 70% from its all-time high if you go back, but gold is near its all-time high. One reason for that is that silver has more commercial and industrial uses than gold does. But when push comes to shove, if you ask me, I am buying more silver than gold.”

But gold itself is still very much on the Rogers menu too.

“I fully expect gold will make new highs before this is all over,” he adds.

“I expect the worst bear market in my lifetime, which might make gold go down, except for the fact I expect people to lose confidence in many governments around the world and in many currencies. And throughout history whenever people lose confidence in governments or money, they have always bought gold and silver. If any academics say you shouldn’t it doesn’t matter. All of us peasants have been buying gold and I am just a peasant like everybody else.”

Rogers’s commodity index isn’t itself that heavily weighted to gold and silver though, given that it also encompasses agricultural commodities and the oil and gas complex. Even so, it has managed to outperform other commodity indexes, largely because of the international focus of its constituent base, where other indices tend to have a bias towards the US consumer.

- Source, Proactive Investors

Jim Rogers: China On the Rise and Plans to Eclipse the United States

SBTV speaks with Jim Rogers, veteran investor and author, about the crisis in the markets and why China's rise is inevitable and unsurprising given the decline of the U.S. over the last few decades.

- Source, Silver Bullion TV

Jim Rogers Warns: This is a Financial Crisis Like No Other, Helicopter Money Wont Fix Debt Bubble

Jim Rogers: Markets Overbought, Debt is Skyrocking, US Dollar Bubble, Bitcoin Will Disappear

The Coronavirus continues to move markets around the world through the worst weeks since the financial crisis. Governments and central banks have announced hundreds of billions of stimulus packages. Is that leading to a blow-off rally? 

"No question that markets were overbought before“, says Jim Rogers (77). The American investor thinks: “The debt is skyrocking in the end. I can't think of a single central bank that is completely independent.“ Will our currencies survive? 

"Not as we know them now. Certainly not the euro. The US dollar will go much higher. Turning to a bubble.“ And Bitcoin? "That will go to zero. All of those cyber currencies will disappear.“

- Source

Jim Rogers: More Central Bank Money Printing Will Result in a Huge Bubble in 2 Years

Everybody has to make his own decision. I expect things to be okay for a while in nearly all markets, including bond markets. These guys are going to drive interest rates to unbelievably low levels. This is not good. I want to tell you again, this is not good for the world. But it is good for the markets for a while.

If you ask me today, I would say we would make new highs in the US stock market. Now I use that since it is the largest and most important stock market. I would suspect we would see new highs. We may even have a blow-off bubble. It has been a while since we have had a blow-off bubble in any stock market in the world.

So it may turn into a bubble. I do expect at least new highs before the whole thing collapses. But I want to tell you again, this is not good for any of us in the long run. In the long run, when this comes to an end, we are going to have the worst financial markets in my life time. I know I am older than you, so it is going to be the worst in your lifetime too.

In 2008, we had a big problem because of too much debt all over the world. Since 2008, debt has risen higher and higher and higher everywhere. Even China has a lot of debt now. In 2008, China had a lot of money saved for rainy days. It started raining and China started spending the money.

They helped save the world, but even China has a lot of debt now. In Germany, of all places, everybody has a lot of debt now. So next time around – I know some people would say we are never going to have a bear market again – but if you believe them. you should not listen to me.

I know we will have a bear market again, and I know the next one is going to be very-very bad. And when I say very bad, markets will go down 50-60-80, but some stocks will go down 80-90%. That is what bear markets do.

I am not trying to spread fear, I am just telling you how markets work. Do not listen to me, look it up. Bear markets always work that way.

- Source, Economic Times