Sunday, December 23, 2018

The Best Buy I Can Find Now That Powell's Blinked

Fed Chair Jerome Powell changed his tune last Wednesday morning, saying rates were much closer to "neutral" than they've been.

Not surprisingly, the markets shot higher, with the Dow tacking on 600+ points in its second best day of the year. All three averages gave some of that back immediately on Thursday, but no matter.

I've got to hand it to him.

Seems even "old dogs can learn new tricks."

Powell's language is a marked change from what he said in October, when he noted that rates were a "long way from neutral" and almost singlehandedly cratered U.S. markets.

CNBC's Jim Cramer very succinctly noted shortly after the announcement that Powell's "done the homework and he had to change his mind." Like me, Cramer has been harshly critical of the Fed, and for many of the same reasons.

Now let's see if Powell can resist meddling with the obvious.

Tariffs are still on the table, as are a whole host of other things that could gum up the works. Those include a global economic slowdown, politics, Brexit, a trade war… I could go on, but that wouldn't do anyone any good.

Markets can and do change on a dime. Anybody going along for the ride "because everybody else is" will get clobbered (again). And sheep, as the old saying goes, will get slaughtered.

Obviously, I don't ever want to see that happen to you.

In fact, the opposite is true.

My goal is for you to become a fabulously profitable investor, capable of building the wealth you deserve to live out life on your terms. And I started Total Wealth as a way to share the proven tips, tactics, and techniques that will help make that a reality.

Especially in circumstances like this, when everybody "knows" something to be true and bets accordingly.

Take Powell's comments, for example.

Many investors were looking for an excuse to dump stocks coming into Wednesday's trading, and the headlines were filled with perspective on how to avoid the coming bear market.

I, on the other hand, was in rally mode.

In keeping with something the legendary Jim Rogers told me years ago, "It makes sense to start looking at the other side of the trade when 'everybody' knows something to be true."

Honestly, I'm not any smarter than anybody else.

I simply knew that nobody wants to go down as being singlehandedly responsible for killing the longest-running bull market in history.

Including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

I totally underestimated the man.

He's the first Fed Chair I am aware of who's come even close to saying, "I was wrong" with regard to his prior assessment of rates and business conditions. I'm thinking about October specifically.

What he said Wednesday is not only a shift in what he's communicating, but how.

I can only wonder "who" got to him...


Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Jim Rogers: What to Buy Now

“It is the time to buy commodities again. I would say to you, write it down – commodities are going to do better than stocks.” Jim Rogers, who worked with George Soros on the Quantum Fund in the 1970s, has long been a fan of “real assets”, yet most raw-materials prices peaked in 2011 and have since struggled to regain the lost ground. But with US stocks and the tech sector now on the slide, and interest rates rising, Rogers reckons now is the time for the sector to shine, he tells Remy Blaire at Sprott Media.

However, not all stockmarkets are heading for further falls, reckons Rogers. Smart investors need to “buy low and sell high”. It may sound like obvious advice, but Rogers points to a number of markets that are well below their all-time highs yet remain out of favour with investors. “China’s down 60% from its all-time high. Japan’s down 50%… Russia is hated – I own Russian shares; I own Russian bonds; I own the currency.”

Rogers made his reputation as an adventurous investor – his book Investment Biker was all about a post-Quantum Fund gap year spent touring emerging markets – and he hasn’t changed. On his radar now? Zimbabwe. With former dictator Robert Mugabe no longer in power, Rogers reckons “things are going to change. They may get worse, but I would suspect Zimbabwe is now an interesting place to look”. But do your research. “If you can’t find Zimbabwe on a map… please do not invest… Only invest in what you, yourself, know a lot about.”

- Source, Money Week

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Jim Rogers: Known Reserves of Oil are in Decline, and Continue to Decline

"It is the time to buy commodities again. I would say to you and you can write it down… commodities are going to do better than stocks in the future.

I have learned not to pay too much attention to OPEC… I think oil has been down ten days in a row which is one of the few times in history that that’s ever happened. Oil is making a complicated bottom. 

We are going to look back one day and say ‘2015, ’16, ’17, ’18, ’19, oil made its bottom, and then oil is going to go up again. Known reserves of oil are in decline, and continue to decline, except for fracking, but that bubble has popped, so be careful. Don’t sell your oil.”

- Source, Jim Rogers

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Jim Rogers: Watch Out For Washington DC

Jim Rogers, author of "Street Smarts" joins Sprott Media's Remy Blaire at the NASDAQ MarketSite to consider risks and opportunities on the investment horizon. Rogers offers his take on geopolitical and political risk around the globe and discusses the implications of potential scenarios.

- Source, Sprott Media