, Jim Rogers Blog: 2016

Sunday, December 18, 2016

One should own energy, as the energy reserves continue to decline worldwide

A strong outlook for crude prices may also stop the Reserve Bank of India on its tracks from cutting interest rates aggressively, as a spike in oil price has the potential to swell the inflation number quickly.

Jim Rogers says the outlook for the black gold has turned healthy in the wake of the Opec production cut as it will reduce supplies after lower exploration activity in the past few months.

Crude prices soared nearly 10 per cent on Wednesday following a deal among the Opec members to cut output by around 1.2 million barrels a day (bpd), or over 3 per cent, to 32.5 million bpd from January. 

Rogers said Iran's nod to production cut was a surprise, as it had been opposing such a deal quite a lot. "Let us see if they actually do it. We all know that Iran needs money. What they are going to figure out is whether less supply and higher prices are better for them or vice versa. I am sceptical, I have heard this many times," Rogers said. 

He, however, said the fundamentals are improving for the crude oil market. He noted that the supply is going down, exploration activity is falling and reserves worldwide are already declining.

"Nobody in the world has higher reserves now than they had three years ago, except may be the frackers. The frackers cannot make money at these prices," Rogers said.

He, however, said the fundamentals are improving for the crude oil market. He noted that the supply is going down, exploration activity is falling and reserves worldwide are already declining.

"Nobody in the world has higher reserves now than they had three years ago, except may be the frackers. The frackers cannot make money at these prices," Rogers said.

Rogers, who calls himself as a terrible trader market timer, said crude oil prices were making an attempt to hit a complicated bottom for two or three years. 

"Crude prices fluctuate up and down. They have ranged between $40 and $30 and that will probably continue for a while, more likely towards the upside than the downside. Yes, $60 a barrel is not an unusual number. It is still way down from where crude prices were just two years ago," Rogers said. 

"One should own energy, as the energy reserves continue to decline worldwide. Saudi Arabia has not had a major find in many years, nobody has. Iraq, Nigeria and Iran nobody has found oil, except frackers. The fundamentals of oil continue to improve," he pointed out.
- Source, ET

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Now, brace for some crude shocks; Jim Rogers sees oil price at $60

After demonetisation and Fed rate hike fears, brace for a crude shock now.

Crude oil prices breached the $50 a barrel level on Wednesday following the Opec deal to cap production from January. And now, commodity guru Jim Rogers says crude oil prices could soon head towards $60 a barrel level.

Remember, India's oil import bill for this financial year has been pegged at $66 billion at an average import price of $48 A barrel. India, which depends on imports to meet 80 per cent of its oil needs, will have to spend Rs 9,126 crore ($1.36 billion) more a year for every one dollar a barrel increase in crude oil.
India spent $63.96 billion on crude oil import in 2015-16, about half of the $112.7 billion outgo in the previous financial year and $143 billion in 2013-14.

On Thursday, crude prices were trading at a six-week high of $51.13 a barrel level, up 1.4 per cent over its previous close.

Fund managers and strategists on Dalal Street say should oil prices rise beyond $55-60 a barrel, it could pose a risk to India's economic growth estimates as well.
"An increase in crude oil prices could be a double-edged sword for emerging market equities, which are under pressure due to weak growth and lower fund flows from sovereign wealth funds.

We expect pressure on (India's) fiscal as well as inflation if crude crosses $55-60 a barrel level," Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asia Pacific Equity Strategist, BNP Paribas, had said earlier this year.

- Source, ET

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Jim Rogers: On Gold, All Governments Debasing Their Currency at the Same Time and More


Forget last week's sell-off in gold. Jim Rogers says it's going higher. How high? "If the U.S. dollar becomes confetti, any number you want to make up. They're printing U.S. dollars fast enough to turn them into confetti. Who knows how high gold will go as long as we have a mad man running the central bank," says Rogers. Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with legendary investor Jim Rogers.

- Source, USA Watchdog

Thursday, November 24, 2016

US dollar flawed... Eventually we will all be using Chinese yuan

The Chinese yuan is the only currency on the horizon which can challenge the US dollar to become the world’s reserve currency in the future, says financial commentator and international investor Jim Rogers.

The elite club of reserve currencies used by the International Monetary Fund has a new member, the Chinese yuan.

The list previously had four major world currencies the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the Japanese Yen. The Chinese yuan, also known as 'renminbi', is the fifth most-used currency in international transactions.

Until 2005 it was tied to the US dollar meaning that when the dollar fluctuated up or down against other currencies, the value of the yuan would move with it.

RT: Why do you think the Yuan is joining the reserve currency basket and what does it mean for the global economy?

Jim Rogers: It is joining because the renminbi is now one of the most important currencies in the world. It is the fifth most commonly used. Remember, 15 years ago nobody knew there was a Chinese currency. It has skyrocketed and it is going to be even more important in the future.

RT: How will this affect the four major world currencies already in the IMF's reserve basket: dollars, euros, sterling and yen? Might this pose a challenge to the dollar’s international dominance?

JR: The fact that it is in the IMF basket now is really just a publicity thing, it is not very important. It is significant that it is there. But that’s about all. Trade flows are what will change that. The fact that the British pound is there doesn’t help it, or the Swiss franc or anything else. Just because you are in the IMF basket means very little. What does mean something is trade flows, and as I’ve said, the renminbi 15 years ago was nothing. Now it’s already one of the most dominant currencies in the world.

RT: China has been the world's largest exporter since 2009, overtaking the US. What does the yuan having reserve currency status mean to traders?

JR: Eventually, we will all be using the renminbi. The renminbi is the only thing I see on the horizon which can challenge the US dollar to become the world’s reserve currency. It is not there yet, but it is moving and moving fast. The US dollar is a very flawed currency; the renminbi has its problems, the main one right now is you cannot buy and sell it. It is a blocked currency. But eventually that will change and it will probably challenge the US dollar…. In Hong Kong, you can use the renminbi in any shop you want. It is happening in Macau, and in Singapore there are people who will take the currency.

It’s not big yet but it is on the way.

- Source, Russia Today

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Making money is one of the most dangerous things you can do as an investor

When debt is good – and bad

“There’s nothing wrong with borrowing huge amounts of money – as a country, as a family, as an individual – as long as you’re putting it into productive assets, building for the future. In the nineteenth century, the United States borrowed stupendous amounts from all over the world, mainly from Europe. We were a gigantic debtor nation. We put the money into productive infrastructure such as railroads and factories. And by 1914 we got our payoff. We became a creditor nation for the first time in our history. We then became the world’s largest creditor nation and the most powerful country in the world. We borrowed all that money, but we invested it wisely. But if you borrow a lot of money and buy Rolexes and Porches and big houses… you are not going to thrive long term.”

Around five years after Rogers wrote that, the 2008-2009 global economic crisis delivered what should have been a crowbar-to-the-head message about debt: Too much debt is bad.

But since then, overall levels of debt haven’t declined. Total lending has actually risen – by 40 percent. The world economy owes itself US$57 trillion more than it did in 2007. Total debt – money owed by bank, households, companies and governments – has risen by US$112 trillion, or 129 percent, since 2000.Meanwhile, over the past 25 years, the global economy grew an average of 3.6 percent per year. But global GDP increased 3.4 percent in 2014. Then it slowed to 3.1 percent in 2015. It is expected to be around 3.2 percent this year. Despite all the “stimulus” and escalating debt, the best efforts of central bankers and negative interest rates around the world, global economic growth has – at best – stalled.

Has the money that the world has borrowed been invested in productive assets – or used, as Rogers said, to buy Rolexes and Porches and big houses? It looks like the latter.

- Source, Business Insider

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Deutsche Bank Bankruptcy Would Bring Down the Global Financial System

International investor Jim Rogers warns that if Deutsche Bank would ever fail, it would crash the world’s financial system.

Deutsche Bank has said it would fight a $14 billion demand from the U.S. Department of Justice to settle claims it missold mortgage-backed securities, a shock bill that raises questions about the future of Germany's largest lender.

“The main reason is that the US government is deep in debt. They’ve got a gigantic deficit – they are desperate for money. They’ll try to get it anywhere they can. I can’t imagine that Deutsche Bank should be liable for $14 billion,” Rogers told RT.com.

The claim against Deutsche, which is likely to trigger several months of talks, far exceeds the bank's expectations that the DoJ would be looking for a figure of only up to 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion).

“Either Deutsche Bank goes bankrupt, which is going bring down the entire world financial system, or they are going to come up to some kind of compromise at a lower number. If Deutsche Bank does have to pay $14 billion – you should be very worried anyway, but especially if they have to pay $14 billion,” Rogers said.

The bank only scraped through European stress tests in July and has warned it may need deeper cost cuts to turn itself around after revenue fell sharply in the second quarter due to challenging markets and low interest rates.

Chief Executive Officer John Cryan, in charge since last year, is already firing thousands of workers, dumping unprofitable clients and exiting businesses, Bloomberg reported.


The prospect of bailing out Deutsche Bank is politically noxious for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who’s deciding whether to seek a fourth term next year and has championed European Union rules aimed at keeping taxpayers off the hook in a crisis. Merkel’s spokesman has said the government sees “no grounds” for talk of state funding for the bank. Cryan, for his part, told the Bild newspaper that accepting government support is “out of the question for us.” That hasn’t quelled speculation. Lawmakers from Merkel’s governing coalition said they expect the government to step in if Deutsche Bank were at risk of collapse due to a capital shortfall.

So what if the bank should eventually fail?

“Then the EU would disintegrate, because Germany would no longer be able to support it, would not want to support it. A lot of other people would start bailing out; many banks in Europe have problems. And if Deutsche Bank has to fail – that is the end of it. In 1931, when one of the largest banks in Europe failed, it led to the Great Depression and eventually the WWII. Be worried!” Rogers warned.

Rogers isn't alone about being cautious when it comes to investing in the current turbulent global environment.

Investors should just get used to such volatility for the rest of the year, Newsmax Finance Insider Mohamed El-Erian warns.

Allianz's chief economic adviser told CNBC that traders need a "stomach for volatility."

"This year is going to be all about exploiting volatility on the way up and the way down," he said.


- Source, NewsMax

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Hedge Fund Founder Jim Rogers on the Dangers of Making Money Fast and Too Much Debt

One of the most dangerous things an investor can do is to make money -- because of what he might do next.
And... it doesn't seem all the world's debt has been put to good use.

Those are two of the messages from legendary investor Jim Rogers. (I spoke with Jim personally earlier this year, and you can read the full interview here.)

In the early 1970s, Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, which went on to become one of the world's most successful hedge funds. He quit full-time investing in 1980 after making returns of 4,200% over 10 years.

He then traveled the world twice and wrote a few books about the lessons he learned. Even if you aren't interested in traveling or investing, Investment Biker andAdventure Capitalist are both entertaining and educational reads. They're must-reads for anyone interested in understanding global markets and how they work.

I recently re-read parts of Adventure Capitalist, which Rogers wrote in 2003 after a three-year, 152,000-mile drive around the world. I found a number of lessons that are all the more relevant today. Here are two of them:

On the Dangers of Making Money in the Market

"One of the mistakes that many people make in the stock market is buying something, watching it go up, and thinking they are smart. They find themselves thinking it is easy. They take a big profit and immediately go looking for something else. That's the time they should really do nothing. Self-confidence leading to hubris leading to arrogance -- that is when you really should put the money in the bank and go to the beach for a while until you calm down. Because there are not many great opportunities that are ever going to come along. But you do not need many if you do not make many mistakes."

As Rogers has said before, sometimes the best thing to do is nothing. And sometimes doing nothing means holding cash.

Cash might seem like a terrible investment -- it doesn't earn interest, it gets eaten up by inflation, central banks can just print more of it, and holding it can mean you miss out on the power of compounding.

That said, cash is the perfect hedge. Holding cash means you don't have to worry about market crashes. And it's there to use when, as Jim Rogers said, you find "money lying in the corner."

- Source, The Street

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Jim Rogers Views on the Economy, Advice For Entrepreneurs and Life


Jim Rogers breaks down his recipe for success in this latest interview. He discusses where he sees the economy going in the future and how much of a disaster things currently on. Opportunities can still be had! Even in these dangerous times.


Thursday, October 27, 2016

Jim Rogers: Sterling is in serious decline


Investor Jim Rogers says there are "serious problems facing the UK" and that the pound's value will "certainly go under one dollar" if Scotland leaves the UK.

He told the BBC's Mark Mardell, "You've got a lot of debt, you've got a serious balance of trade problem which shows no signs of being corrected. I don't see anything to make sterling go up."

- Source, BBC

Friday, October 7, 2016

Deutsche Bank is Broke, Derivatives Collapse Coming


Jim Rogers sits down to talk about economic and geopolitical events that unfolding around the world. This comes at a time when the greed and fear index is hitting all time highs. What does the future hold?


Tuesday, October 4, 2016

If we all bought North Korean currency, we'd all be rich someday

Jim Rogers is nothing if not a contrarian, and one of his boldest moves is trying to bet on North Korea.

The famous investor, who cofounded legendary hedge fund Quantum with George Soros, spoke to Real Vision TV and said North Korea is where China was in 1981.

"If we all bought North Korean currency, we'd all be rich someday," Rogers said.

In short, Rogers is seeing the controversial country open up, which he says makes it a good bet.

Here's the relevant excerpt from the Q&A explaining why:

"Well, North Korea today is where China was in 1981. Deng Xiaoping started opening up in '78. Most of us, including me, either weren't aware of it or if we were aware of it. We ignored it, didn't pay any attention. North Korea is doing that now.

"There are 15 free trade zones there now. You can take bicycle tours of North Korea, if you want. You can take movie tours. I'm sure if [Kim Jong Un's] father were alive, he'd hang him. If his grandfather were alive, he'd torture him and then hang him, you know, for some of the things he's doing. I mean, you go to North Korea now, you see these astonishing restaurants with white tablecloths, cutlery, candles. I mean, this is North Korea we're talking about. Chefs. It's happening."

Rogers noted that Chinese and Russian investors are pouring in to the country and said that he almost became an investor in a Chinese group that had a bank in North Korea. He added that his lawyer told him he couldn't invest.

"They're going to be the richest people in China, because they're starting banks, and everything else in North Korea, and you and I just sit and look and say, 'Buy me a Champagne someday.'

Rogers is a pretty colorful guy and is known for his bold bets. He also has investments in Zimbabwe and has been looking at investing in Kazakhstan and Rwanda. That said, he isn't the only one looking at North Korea.

North Korea has been pushing to attract foreign investment, even posting videos on its "unique economic zones" on YouTube. And earlier this year, The New York Times published a profile on James Passin, a hedge fund manager at Firebird Management, who is trying to bet on the country.

Still, there is growing tension between the Hermit Kingdom and the rest of the world. The country has been launching ballistic missiles, with Kim Jong Un reportedly hosting a party to celebrate the most recent test.

That is making life harder for those who are invested in the country. Earlier this month,Reuters reported that the only law firm in North Korea set up by a foreigner, Hay, Kalb & Associates, will suspend operations.

- Source, Business Insider

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Investors Still Frightened By Russia

Famed commodities investor Jim Rogers thinks the market is in the process of detecting the next big crisis, and is still “frightened” by Russia.

“My first successful investment in Russia this year was shorting the ruble, but now I’m looking at finance, ruble bonds, opportunities in inbound tourism are all of interest because they can provide a higher return,” he said in an interview with business daily Kommersant published on Thursday. “Frankly, investors are still frightened about the prospect of investing in Russian securities,” he said.

Rogers called the Russian market one of the most perennially undervalued in the world. He said that oil prices will recover soon, but not by much as the global economy might suffer new shocks. One is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the U.S. and the other is the possible election of Donald Trump. For Rogers, a Trump presidency would make markets most skittish because of his stance on trade.

Trump has said he would retool the North American Free Trade Agreement, pan the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, and is more pen to trade tariffs on Chinese imports in an effort to maintain manufacturing jobs in the U.S.


Rogers told the daily that a new crisis is likely within the next two years. It will come from an unsuspecting country first, like Iceland in 2007, a year before the Lehman Brothers blow-out in the fall of 2008.

Higher interest rates in the U.S. could lead to similar moves in Europe, which are currently dealing with the unheard of trend of negative interest rates, particularly in northern European countries.

- Source, Forbes

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Next time the world ends, it’ll be a bigger shock than we expect, warns Jim Rogers

Now that the Jackson Hole hoopla is behind us, traders can exhale and move on to the next order of business, which, incidentally, isn’t all that different from the previous order of business: Fretting about interest rates.

Or, specifically, as Jeff Miller of the Dash of Insight blog asks in his weekly preview: Will the Fed get the signal to hike rates? The answer, he says, lies in the next crop of economic data, which will certainly get “special scrutiny” this week.

Of course, extra special scrutiny will be reserved for the end of the week, when we get the August employment number. Until then, there’s more than a few notable reports to keep us occupied (more on that in the “The economy” section).

And so we enter another stretch with the market precariously perched near record highs. Despite these lofty levels, there are plenty of bullish analysts out there optimistic about the coming sessions. One of them is Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James. He puts the worst-case scenario for the market at a 5% drop over the next month. What’s more, “if we don’t follow through on the downside with vigor, the S&P 500 could test new highs,” he said.

Don’t count famed investor Jim Rogers among the rose-colored-glasses set. While he had some bullish things to say about Russia and North Korea, of all places, he isn’t giving the U.S. and Europe much love in our call of the day (see below) He’s all about the shocks that are headed our way.

No shocks so far this morning.

Jim Rogers recently shared a wide range of his views on the global investing landscape with Real Vision, and he definitely appears comfortable in the company of the doom-and-gloom bunch. Zero Hedge nicely summed up the lengthy interview, in which Rogers points to Europe, the U.K and the U.S. as markets ripe for a hit. “You should be short the U.S.,” he said. “That’s the market that’s still the highest. It hasn’t gone down yet.”

But don’t bother shorting Japan, it’s already down 75%. Same with Russia. “Who wants to short Russia? I’m long Russia,” Rogers said. “I mean, where are you going to short? Everything’s collapsed.” He even had some positive things to say about North Korea, claiming “we’d all be rich someday” if we loaded up on that country’s currency.

Rogers says he is also optimistic about China, which he described in the promo video below as “the most important country in the 21st Century.” Still, he warned that there will be some wrenching developments along the way. The kicker: “The next time the world comes to an end, it’s going to be a bigger shock than we expect.”

- Source, Market Watch

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Be worried: Serious economic crisis on horizon

Investor Jim Rogers has some sobering words on the future of the global economy. Even though the leading oil producers are working on price stabilization, he warns another significant economic crash could be on the cards within a couple of years.

Oil prices spiked on Monday after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed working toward market stabilization. The two countries are setting up a working group to help support prices, after the collapse in 2014.

RT: What can the two countries do to stabilize prices?

Jim Rogers: The Saudis have made it clear they don’t want to cut production and they are right, in my view. I am not Saudi Arabian so I can’t tell them what to do. The Russians want to cut production, that’s not what I would do. I would let the market play itself out. It is taking a while but the high cost producers are closing down and going out of business. You are forcing the high cost exploration to stop. There is no exploration. Exploration budgets are cut by ninety percent. This eventually means no oil supply, and the price goes through the roof again. Why would you sell your oil down at these prices if you could wait and sell it later?

RT: People are trying to steady the oil market. A couple of countries are discussing freezing output. But if they freeze output to summer levels, that would ensure the continued flooding of the market and continued low prices, yes or no?

JR: Yes, you are making my case. Why bother? Let the market sort it out. The market is sorting it out. The Canadian oil sands cannot make money right now. The frackers in America cannot. The people in deep drilling cannot make money. The budgets are drying up. Take your time, be patient.

RT: Russia was severely hit by the falling prices, but Saudi Arabia now is trying to make some moves for some sort of sense of normality. What’s prompting Riyadh to make moves these days?

JR: Saudi Arabia is running out of money, too. You may know they just borrowed huge amounts of money. They have a gigantic budget. They are keeping a lot of people on the payroll in Saudi Arabia… But that’s good because that forces the market to adjust eventually. But in the meantime, Saudi Arabia is suffering, Venezuela, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, they all are suffering. But it will come back.

- Source, Russia Today

Thursday, September 22, 2016

JIM ROGERS: I'm not the only person who knows there's turmoil coming

There's economic havoc on the horizon, but no safe haven, says legendary investor Jim Rogers.

"I'm not the only person who knows there's turmoil coming," Rogers said in an interview with Real Vision TV released Friday. "And people are looking for ways to protect themselves."

Rogers is worried about the increasing valuation of gold and the US dollar, as well as the US stock indexes, which he said are up despite most underlying stocks being down.

Meanwhile, many investors are seeking shelter in gold and the US dollar, but neither are safe, Rogers said.

"I own a lot of US dollars, though," he added. "Not because it's a safe haven, but because people think it's a safe haven. And when the world falls apart, people will put their money into the dollar. That's going to mean the dollar's going to go up."

In turn, the dollar's increase is going to hurt a lot of other currencies, Rogers said, including the euro, the UK pound, and the Chinese currency.

Rogers warned against seeing strength in the strong US stock market, which has continued to rise. "Everybody thinks, well, things are great because look at the S&P," he said. "Well, look under the S&P, and you would say, 'Oh, my God, look what's going on here.' We've got problems, and that's happening this year as well."

Rogers joins other notable investors who have raised concerns about potential market turmoil.

Stan Druckenmiller said earlier this year that investors should move their money to gold, and 36 South's Jerry Haworth, who runs a black swan fund, said he also expects chaos to come.

- Source, Business Insider

Monday, September 19, 2016

Jim Rogers on Oil, Gold and Why China Is a Buy

Legendary investor Jim Rogers couldn’t be blamed for always carrying a piece of gold in his pocket given the uncertainty that stalks global markets.

Rogers remains a true believer in the precious metal given his unease with what he sees in global markets. Frankly, he’s worried. He’s not a believer in Wall Street’s rally and is shorting U.S. stocks, though paradoxically for a gold fan he likes the U.S. dollar. And don’t get him started on the U.S. presidential race – he’s not a big fan of either Trump or Clinton.

Barron’s Asia recently caught up with the 73-year-old investing veteran in his adopted home of Singapore. Famed for cofounding Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973, he’s an avid observer of China, a country whose potential inspired the Alabama native to move his family to Singapore so his two daughters could learn Mandarin. While acknowledging the challenges confronting Beijing, he still believes the 21st Century is China’s century. Reflecting the spirit of his book Adventure Capitalist, Rogers also generously offered an eclectic mix of investment ideas from around the world, with picks spanning lithium and graphene stocks, Russian ruble-denominated debt, Chinese tourism plays and a Colombian marijuana company.

Barron’s Asia: So what’s your big picture view of global markets?

Jim Rogers: People tend to think stock markets are fine because the U.S. averages are okay but the S&P500 is up only because of a few stocks- twice as many stocks on the NYSE are down as those that are up. Amazon ( AMZN ) continues to soar but most things in the world are down. It makes me worried. What seems to be happening now is the U.S. is the only place where you can earn interest or dividends so more and more money is flowing into the U.S. and crowding into a few stocks.

I own a lot U.S. dollars and I’m short U.S. stocks. The dollar continues to be strong and it looks like it’s going to go higher and higher. It’s good for me because I own dollars but it’s causing more distortions in the world. People flee into the dollar to earn returns and to seek a safe haven. It has been a safe haven historically but won’t be in the future because it’s going to get overpriced and might even turn into a bubble depending on how chaotic things get in the rest of the world. Also, the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in history. But given few choices at the moment, people buy into dollars. If it turns into a bubble, I hope I’m smart enough to sell my dollars at that point.

Q: What could shake confidence in the U.S. dollar? Could a victory by Trump in November sap the greenback’s strength?

A: Well, if Donald Trump blows up Mexico or goes to war with China then it would scare people. But even then people are going to think America is going to blow up the world so they would buy more dollars. If Trump wins and he does what he says he’s going to do such as wage trade wars then it’s going to be bad news for all of us. Trade wars have led to bankruptcy and bankruptcy has often led to war. At that point, you’d better own a lot of gold.

Q: So you’re no fan of Trump. How do you rate Hillary Clinton?

A: With all due respect, Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a clue. The only difference between Clinton and Trump is it’s going to take Clinton longer to force us all into bankruptcy. What happened in the Middle East under Hillary Clinton was a total disaster for America and what will happen under Hillary Clinton as president will be even more of a disaster. Perhaps the only worse disaster for America is Donald Trump. It’s one of the few times in history where both candidates running for the presidency of a major country are disliked by everybody. I’m not going to vote for either of them.

Q: How concerned are you about the dislocations in the global economy and the evolution of more sharply divided and populist politics?

A: There are a lot of similarities to the late 20s, where there were strange politicians saying strange things and coming to power with strange ideas. At the same time, you have financial dislocations left over from previous financial dislocations. In the late 20s, a lot of money flowed into the U.S. because that’s where you could earn interest. The Federal Reserve raised rates and America drew more money and it led to a huge stock market bubble that collapsed and you may know the rest of the story: we had a depression and we had war. And I see some of the same kinds of personalities and some of the same financial dislocations. In 1927, the U.S. economy peaked but stocks kept going higher while the rest of the world was coming down because of these artificial flows of money. I don’t want to paint too sharp a picture here but the same thing may be happening, and if it is, think about buying a farm in New Zealand or Australia.

Q: Gold is up 30% since the beginning of the year. You’ve been a long time bull but are you still buying?

A: I own gold but I haven’t been buying. The commitment of traders shows that gold speculators own more gold than they ever have in history. I don’t want to be buying gold because this has always been a contrarian indicator. But if gold goes back down, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more gold. Before this is over, gold is going to go through the roof and could turn into its own bubble – more and more people will lose confidence in governments and currencies and when that happens, they always turn to gold. I’d like for my children to have my gold someday but if a bubble takes shape – everybody owns gold and is regularly buying more – then I’ll have to sell and put my money into something else.

Q: What other commodities are you bullish on?

A: I’m optimistic about agriculture. Sugar, rice – just list the agricultural commodities that are down and I’m interested. I have some exotic metals but as far as the commodities themselves go, they aren’t liquid. I own a little uranium stock. I’m also a director atCrusader Resources ( CAS.AU ). It’s an Australian mining company that’s recently found lithium so it’s now a triple play on iron ore, gold and lithium. I have a lot of options in Crusader. Electric vehicles will need my lithium. I’m also invested in graphene throughMason Graphite ( LLG.CA ) in Canada. Graphene was discovered about 10 years ago and it’s incredibly light but stronger than steel.

Q: You started looking at Russia three years ago after having been pessimistic about the unloved market for almost five decades. What have you been buying?

A: I own Aeroflot (AFLT.RU) and Moscow Exchange (MOEX.RU). I also ownPhosAgro (PHOR.RU), which is a very large fertilizer company – I’m optimistic about agriculture and I’m optimistic about Russia so it was the perfect combination. All three have been making all-time highs – a shocking statement even to someone who owns the stocks – but I plan to hold onto them because I bought them for almost nothing and Russia can only get better. Unfortunately, Russia and China are being pushed together, which is great for them but not good for America and Europe.

I also own Russian government bonds in rubles and I plan to buy more when they go down again. They have very high yields and are a double play on the ruble and Russian interest rates. The ruble will go down with oil but when oil makes its bottom, the ruble will go higher. Oil is having its dead cat bounce and it will go back to test the lows – that’s usually what happens. My view is the lows will hold – maybe $24 a barrel, maybe $32 a barrel – and at that point, the ruble will make its bottom and Russian interest rates will undoubtedly be making their tops. Russian government bonds in rubles may be one of the best buys right now.

Q: So where is the next Russia?

A: Kazakhstan. It’s also a former Soviet country that’s affected by oil. It’s realized that it can’t play by the old rules anymore. Foreign investors are now subject to English law so it’s a place where good things are happening. Nigeria is the same thing - another oil depressed country. I opened an account in Nigeria last year but haven’t bought anything yet. Colombia’s had a horrible civil war for a long time but there’s now a ceasefire. Marijuana is becoming legal in more countries around the world, for medicinal purposes and also recreationally, so I’ve invested in a marijuana company in Colombia. Colombia has the perfect climate, soil and rain for growing the plant. If the medicinal studies about marijuana are right then it’s going to change everything.

Q: You’ve said China will be the most important nation of the 21st Century. What’s your view on China’s slowdown and its ability to handle challenges like overcapacity?

A: I own Chinese shares and my children speak Mandarin – they’re not going to stop speaking Mandarin if China starts having economic problems. There will be problems in parts of the Chinese economy. The manufacturing sector isn’t going to be in such great shape, especially exporters and companies with lots of debt. But there are also industries that will do well no matter what happens in the wider economy. China is spending so much money to clean up pollution that environmental protection will continue to do very well. Health care is another because China needs more health care and it needs better health care. China has also invested a lot of money into One Belt, One Road and may have the best railway technology in the world. Then there’s agriculture. Beijing is doing a lot of things to help farmers in the country side and has directed banks to give loans to the agricultural sector but to cut back on loans for property in cities. I own stocks in all of these areas. Sure, parts of the Chinese economy will go bankrupt and it will shock and scare the socks off people. The headlines will be that China’s collapsing, but underneath, there will be companies that will do very well. A key to successful investing is to own recession resistant stocks that do well in a bear market – that’s how you make a lot of money coming out the other side.

China’s going to have problems, which doesn’t really surprise me, but my kids aren’t going to start learning Danish when we see problems in China because China is going to come out the other side as the most important country of the 21st century. America, which became the most successful country in the 20th century, has lived through depressions and a horrible civil war. Every individual, company or country that rises has problems along the way – that’s how the world works.

Q: You’re also upbeat about the Chinese travel industry. Why?

A: One of the great growth industries of our time is going to be Chinese tourism because the Chinese have not been able to travel for decades, but now it’s easy to get a passport and it’s easy to take out money to put towards your travel. There are 1.4 billion Chinese who want to see their country and the world. I remember living in New York in the 80s and we all said “where did all these Japanese come from?” There are 10 times as many Chinese as there are Japanese. So I own Chinese airline stocks. I own most of them except the budget airlines.

Q: How would a weaker renminbi affect Chinese tourism?

A: The renminbi will continue to fall. Not for any special reasons but simply because the U.S. dollar is going up. The dollar is so strong that everything else will look bad compared to it. Plus, the renminbi has been the strongest currency since 2005 – it went up every year until 2014. Anything that goes up for such a long time usually has a correction. But remember, if the renminbi goes down, China becomes more attractive for foreign visitors and the Chinese who can no longer afford to fly to Paris will go to Xi’an or Xiamen instead.

- Source, Barrons


Tuesday, September 6, 2016

The FED is Pushing the World Towards a Collapse that Will Make 2008 Look Like Childs Play


Jim Rogers warns that the economic shocks felt in 2008 were just the warm up. He talks about the continuing problems that the global markets face. What is coming for the world? Are we prepared or will this be the collapse that makes all other collapses look small? Jim Rogers discusses.





Saturday, September 3, 2016

It's Time to Prepare - July 2016 will be bad for the US Dollar, US Economy & Stock Market!


Jim Rogers states that it is time to prepare. Not now, not tomorrow, right now. The July 2016 elections are going to create global economic uncertainty of epic proportions. He is ringing the alarm bell, are you listening?


Tuesday, August 30, 2016

First Soros Now Jim Rogers Predicts Trillion Dollar 'Biblical' Crash


Select global elites around the world are ringing the alarm bell. What is coming our way? A crash of epic proportions, many believe, is on route. Jim Rogers breaks down what he see's coming in this latest interview. Buckle yourself in, it's going to be a bumpy ride. A crash of biblical proportions is coming our way.


Friday, August 26, 2016

Everybody Should be Concerned About Brexit


Jim Rogers discusses the recent successful Brexit vote and how it could affect the world going forward. He see's a period of renewed uncertainty and much greater collapse coming our way. He states that we should be concerned, very concerned.


Tuesday, August 23, 2016

The Great Global Unraveling

Rogers is one of the world’s most successful investors…

After studying at Yale and Oxford, he cut his teeth on Wall Street before starting the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973.

Quantum became one of the best-performing hedge funds in history.

From 1970 to 1980, the fund gained 4,200%, while the S&P advanced about 47%.

That’s enough to turn a small retirement account of $30,000 into almost $1.3 million… in just one decade.

Needless to say, the fund also made Rogers rich… rich enough to retire in 1980.

Since then, he’s traveled the world and written a host of bestselling books, while also becoming one of the world’s most sought after experts on the global economy, markets and Asia.

Rogers has seen it all. And his perspective on history and global finance is unmatched.

That’s why I ventured to see him to get his take on the great global unraveling taking place right before our eyes…

Look, the system is broken. The masses are starting to revolt. And the Bubble Finance era pursued for decades by inept central bankers has maxed out.

In short, the end game is now plausible. And the current global chaos we’re seeing could just be the beginning.

How bad can things get?

Rogers believes it will be unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetime…


Saturday, August 20, 2016

Exclusive Interview With Jim Rogers on The Daily Reckoning


Talk to the average Joe on the street and he’ll tell you the world is coming undone…

And he’s right.

There’s widespread social unrest… rampant institutional corruption… record numbers of unemployed… pandemic violence and terrorism… and historic levels of global debt that can never be repaid.

If stock markets were not at nominal all-time highs, everyone would believe that events are spiraling out of control.

Yet even with stocks at highs, people know there’s something terribly wrong… and they can’t seem to put their finger on why it’s happening and what it all means.

So I traveled to Singapore recently for an important conversation with someone who can: legendary investor and author Jim Rogers.


Sunday, August 14, 2016

Deutsche Bank is Broke, Derivatives Collapse Coming


Often featured on mainstream television networks for economic analysis, Jim Rogers is graciously with us once again to discuss the macro picture of where the world is during this economic crisis. Jim reiterates the great value and preservation of wealth tool that Gold is especially with China most likely hoarding massive tons of it.


Sunday, July 17, 2016

Indian market will pay for West's greed, warns commodity ace Jim Rogers

All markets are up because the central banks are printing more and more money, so it is astonishing for me to see this keep on happening. The Europeans, the Japanese keep on pumping more money. Even the us money supply is going up. Interest rates have been going up or down, but all the central banks continue to pump money into the system.

The markets went down, not by very much and all the central banks printed money again. I said to you before too, what happens is that markets go down a good deal, and then the central banks panic and print more money. I mean this is absurd what is happening to the world . We are going to pay a horrible price someday including India.

- Source, ET India

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Financial Crisis: Jim Rogers Makes Grim Announcement to Investors

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers suggests that oil prices are not going to drop below $30.00 for some time; he predicts a correction. Meanwhile, as the rally lasts, there will be downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Rogers, who has painted a bearish scenario for the world economy over the next year, says that commodities have been “banged a great deal,” such that the only thing that can happen next is a major rally. This rally is already underway, according to him. (Source: “The dollar needs a correction…it was so strong for so long: Jim Rogers,” The Hindu Business Line, May 4, 2016.)

But Rogers speaks of a “complicated bottom.” By that, Jim Rogers implies a continued murkiness in which prices could jump or crash at any time.

In this case, he sees the Federal Reserve’s plans as crucial. Rogers says the dollar is already correcting and that it needs to do so because it’s been strong for too long. Rogers suggests that the recent commodities rally will end and metals will drop again. He suggests that there will be more profitable opportunities to buy metals later this year and possibly next year also.

Meanwhile, Jim Rogers has warned investors that the U.S. economy will—not could—enter a recession within the next year. (Source: “Jim Rogers: There’s a 100% Probability of a U.S. Recession within a Year,” Bloomberg, March 4, 2016.)

You won’t find too many Wall Street executives sharing that view. Bankers at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) see only a 33% chance of a recession in 2017. (Source: “Rogers: Why I Am Out of the Yen, Long the U.S. Dollar,” Bloomberg, March 4, 2016.)

Rogers sees China as one of the weak links in the global economy. He is skeptical about China’s efforts to change, noting that economies are always changing; that is their nature. The problem, as Rogers sees it, is that China’s economy has a lot of debt buildup, which is going to cause many investors to blow up. A Chinese recession will have global repercussions.

If the Chinese economy tanks, the commodities market will suffer from loss of demand. When commodities drop, the U.S. dollar strengthens against major currencies such as the euro or the British pound, and vice versa. So, Rogers suggests, the U.S. dollar should see a correction in the short term, while commodities remain in the so-called complicated bottom; however, its value should rise as the economy heads toward a recession, which will force demand for commodities to drop.


Sunday, July 10, 2016

Two Lessons on China and Commodities, From Legendary Investor Jim Rogers

Maybe not tomorrow, but eventually, China will devalue its currency. And prices for uranium and coal and other undervalued commodities will recover. That's because, in the end, markets always win.

That's the application of some of the sage advice from the books of legendary investor Jim Rogers. Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, one of the world's most successful hedge funds, in the early 1970's. He quit full-time investing in 1980 after generating returns of 4,200% over 10 years.

Afterwards, he traveled the world several times, and he wrote about his experiences. Those books include Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, investment tourism books that are must-reads for anyone interested in global markets.

I found a few important lessons that are relevant to today's investment markets while re-reading parts of Rogers' books (including his more autobiographical book, Street Smarts). Here are some of those lessons:

1. Central Banks Will Always Fail to Control Prices (from Investment Biker, 1994)

China's renminbi is a prime example of this today. The Peoples Bank of China, China's central bank controls its currency's exchange rate. It's only a matter of time before the central bank is forced to allow the renminbi to decrease in value. We've written about this before, and Jim Rogers has told us the same thing. Nearly every central bank that attempts to control its currency must eventually give in to market forces. This has especially proved true in recent decades.

Many investors worried that the renminbi was going to drop very suddenly last January. As it turns out, it didn't. So, talk of the renminbi's depreciation is no longer making headlines. But just because business journalists have stopped talking about the renminbi doesn't mean the issue has gone away. Global markets will continue to react to uncertainty over the Chinese renminbi until the currency is allowed to trade freely...



- Read the full story on The Street


Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Where is Jim Rogers Investing His Money Now?


Jim Rogers tell us what he is investing in now and gives his reasons, says what he thinks about the Russian market and what a Trump Presidency could mean.

Saturday, June 25, 2016

Jim Rogers - Interest Rates Will Rise, New Recession Imminent


James B. (Jim) Rogers is an American businessman, investor, author and worldwide traveler. In this video, he is interviewed exclusively by Olav Dirkmaat, UFM Market Trends Vice Director and professor at the School of Business of Universidad Francisco Marroquín, about the different investments he has done over the years, explaining the ups and downs of the financial sector throughout his rich and vast experience. He talks about leverage, his investment philosophy and his pessimism about the market by the periods of the dot com bubble and the 2008 mass bankruptcy. 

He explains the problem about worldwide debt in his book Hot Commodities published in 2005. He expounds that there are cycles of investment in commodities and the cycle will change soon, a new recession is on the way. Jim is skeptical about central banking and negative interest rates. He points out the problems in financial future and explains his secret to success is simply to pay attention to what is going on.


Friday, June 3, 2016

Jim Rogers discusses the coming global financial crises, the Australian property bubble


Maverick Investor, brilliant market strategist and author Jim Rogers discuss a range of issues, including the next global financial meltdown, the Australian housing bubble, gold, civilisations and investing.


Sunday, May 1, 2016

Jim Rogers - What’s coming will be ‘worse than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes slithreen guard slithreen guard


Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office - he notes twice as many US stocks were down in 2015 as up, a bearish market breadth indication. The primary reason why the equities indexes remain aloft is the enormous debt burden added to the balance sheets of the Fed, since 2008. But unlike 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929, the US is now the largest debtor nation in the world, putting the country at elevated risk of default. This anomaly presents the most precarious economic quagmire in national history. He's currently long the US dollar (from much lower levels), the Yuan, Chinese stocks, short US shares, long agricultural futures and holding on tightly to gold / silver. Poised like a praying mantis, the ever vigilant investor is anticipating the right opportunity to increase his gold / silver exposure. With an established knack for identifying profit opportunities outside the scope of the mainstream media he recently developed a penchant for undervalued Russian bonds and rubles. Unlike the West, Russia is not a debtor nation but a creditor, for instance, Cuba owes Russia $25 billion as of 2013 figures.



Thursday, April 28, 2016

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Jim Rogers discusses US dollar and gold


Jim Rogers is long on China and short US dollar. He says the dollar is not safe and gold will turn into a bubble. Investment opportunities are in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Iran.


Wednesday, April 6, 2016

ET NOW Exclusive : Jim Rogers


If you can only go to one country in your life, you should go to India' says Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests. Catch him in an exclusive conversation with ET NOW.


Sunday, April 3, 2016

Rogue Money Radio - Guest: Jim Rogers


Maverick Investor and brilliant market strategist Jim Rogers sits down with The Guerrilla for a review of the entire global geo-economic/geo-strategic picture.


Thursday, March 17, 2016

Strengthening U.S. Dollar has Historically been Negative for Commodities

Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers is certain that the U.S. economy will be in recession in the next 12 months.

During an interview on Bloomberg TV with Guy Johnson, the famous investor said that there was a 100 percent probability that the U.S. economy would be in a downturn within one year.

"It's been seven years, eight years since we had the last recession in the U.S., and normally, historically we have them every four to seven years for whatever reason—at least we always have," he said. "It doesn't have to happen in four to seven years, but look at the debt, the debt is staggering."

Most Wall Street economists see a much smaller chance of a U.S. recession within this span, with odds typically below 33 percent.

Rogers was not specific on what could trigger a disorderly deleveraging process and recession but claimed that sluggish or slowing economies in China, Japan, and the euro zone mean that there are many possible channels of contagion.

The former partner of George Soros suggested that if investors focus on the right data, there are signs that the U.S. economy is already faltering.

"If you look at the payroll tax figures [in the U.S.], you see they're already flat," he concluded. "Don't pay attention to the government numbers, pay attention to the real numbers."

In light of the economic turmoil envisioned by Rogers, he is long the U.S. dollar.

"It might even turn into a bubble," he said of the greenback. "I mean, if markets around the world are crashing, let's just say that scenario happens, everybody's going to put their money in the U.S. dollar—it could turn into a bubble."

Rogers added that a strengthening U.S. dollar has historically been negative for commodities—the asset class that the investor is best-known for.

While the yen is often designated as a risk-off currency, it won't benefit in the event of a flight to safety due to the massive, continued expansion of the Bank of Japan's balance sheet, according to Rogers, who said he exited his position in the yen last Friday.

- Source, Bloomberg

Friday, March 4, 2016

Jim Rogers China Is a Victim, Not Cause of Problems


Jim Rogers talks about the growth of the economy and how government figures around the world are a farce. He sees things slowing down, but that's normal. He is worried about the global economy going forward.