Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Jim Rogers Says Trade War Is Making His Bearish View Even Darker

Veteran investor Jim Rogers is already predicting the worst bear market for stocks in his lifetime. And that’s before you figure in a trade war.

“The next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime -- just because of the debt -- but if we also have a trade war, it’s going to be worse than a disaster,” Rogers, the 75-year-old chairman of Rogers Holdings Inc., said in a Moscow interview. “I’m extremely concerned. I’ve read enough history and been through enough markets to know that trade wars are usually a disaster.”

Rogers spoke as the prospects for a full-blown trade spat looked to be increasing. President Donald Trump plans as much as $60 billion of tariffs on Chinese products as early as this week to swat Beijing for alleged intellectual-property theft, according to two people familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, China is preparing to hit back with levies aimed at industries and states where Trump’s supporters are found, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

“You think the Chinese are just sitting around?” Rogers said. “China’s a huge buyer of American agriculture, so of course that’s the obvious place to hit back because that hurts Mr. Trump the worst. It’s not Americans, it’s Trump. Trump and his guys, those are the ones they have to hit.”

With U.S. and European stock markets near historical highs, Rogers is looking for investments in Russia, China, Japan or Vietnam, he said. He bought short-term local Russian government bonds on Wednesday, he said, citing the appeal of the stable ruble and high real rates. He’s also invested in the shares of Russian companies Qiwi Plc and Rosinter Restaurants Holding.

“I’d rather invest in Russia than in Germany, I’d rather invest in Japan or China than in America,” Rogers said. “America is at an all-time high, and no other nation in the history of the world has ever been this in debt.”

- Source, Bloomberg

Thursday, March 15, 2018

The Indian Stock Market is the Most Vulnerable in the World

Chairman of Rogers Holdings, Jim Rogers says that he will not invest in India for now.

The sell-off in the US equity markets – the biggest in two years – was triggered mainly by rising bond yields and spread across major global indices on Tuesday. Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings tells Puneet Wadhwa that the US bond market that hit bottom in 1981 and has been in a bull-run since then, is coming to an end. There will be rallies along the way, he says, but we will enter a very long bear market. Edited excerpts:
What is your interpretation of the rout we saw in global equity markets today?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index has gone up quite a lot in the past few years and has had not reactions to any major event. The correction seen in global markets was well overdue. However, I cannot say right now if this correction turns into something more than just a one-day fall and goes deeper. It is too early to predict. That said, we were very, very overdue for the markets to go down.
How do you see the bond markets play out over the next three – six months?

The US Federal Reserve (US Fed) is likely to raise interest rates in March 2018. I think they will. This will trigger a rally in bonds. The bond yields will go higher over the next few years, although the central banks will try to cause rallies every time things get really bad. The US bond market hit bottom in 1981. That long bull market is coming to an end. There will be rallies along the way, but we will enter a very long bear market.
What does all this mean for the Indian markets?

The good news for the Indian market is that there is a general election coming up in 2019. Narendra Modi will do everything he can to win it. This means giving out sops and adopting populist measures as well. On the other hand, the Indian stock market has been on a strong footing since quite some time, but you now have a capital gains tax on equities to deal with as well.

Historically, we have seen if you tax something, whether it is gold, cars or any other asset, the demand gets supressed for that item. So, the Indian stock market is more vulnerable than any other global stock market now due to the introduction of LTCG.
Are you looking to invest in the Indian markets on any correction?

No, I do not. The Indian markets, as I said, are more vulnerable than any other global market. Given the run up seen over the past few months and the introduction of LTCG has made it more vulnerable. I will not invest here for now.
Which regions and asset classes appear investment worthy to you right now?

I like Asian tourism stocks, agriculture stocks. That apart, I also like companies engaged in pollution clean-up. India and China are both filthy and need to be cleaned up. Some areas of the world economy will do well going ahead no matter what happens. But basically, this is not a good time to be buying shares.
What is your outlook for crude oil prices and gold?

Crude oil prices are in the process of making a bottom. Over the past few years, since 2015 to 2018, people will say the oil prices tried to make a bottom, but it has been a complicated bottom. I think oil prices will be a good buy over the next couple of years. I am not buying oil at the moment. Now that the equity markets are going down, oil prices will correct too.

I am not buying gold at all. I am waiting for the gold prices to go down a lot from here. If the overall markets go down, gold prices will also be impacted. Over the next one – two years, I hope to buy a lot of gold, especially if it goes down a lot. I do not hold any cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin etc.

- Source, The Print

Monday, March 12, 2018

This Will be One of the Worst Market Crashes Ever

Rogers has seen severe bear markets before. Even this century, the Dow plunged more than 50 per cent during the financial crisis, from a peak in October 2007 through a low in March 2009. It sank 38 per cent from its high during the IT bubble in 2000 through a low in 2002.

“Jim has been talking about severe corrections since I started in business over 30 years ago,” said Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. President Mike Evans, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker. “So I’m sure he’ll be right at some point.”

Rogers predicts the stock market will experience jitters until the Federal Reserve increases borrowing costs. That, he says, will be the point when stocks go up again. He said he’ll buy an agriculture index today, reiterating his view that prices of such commodities have been depressed for some time.

“I’m very bad in market timing,” Rogers said. “But maybe there will be continued sloppiness until March when they raise interest rates, and it looks like the market will rally.”

Friday, March 9, 2018

Veteran investor Jim Rogers says next bear market will be 'the worst in our lifetime'

Jim Rogers, 75, says the next bear market in stocks will be more catastrophic than any other market downturn that he's lived through.

The veteran investor says that's because even more debt has accumulated in the global economy since the financial crisis, especially in the US.

While Rogers isn't saying that stocks are poised to enter bear territory now - or making any claim to know when they will - he says he's not surprised that US equities resumed their sell-off on Thursdayand he expects the rout to continue.

"When we have a bear market again, and we are going to have a bear market again, it will be the worst in our lifetime," Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in a phone interview.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Fiat Money is Out of Control, This Will End Us

Jim Rogers and Michael Pento discuss how reckless and out of control central bankers have become. The endless money printing is going to bring the entire system down.

- Video Source