Equities in India are on a tear this year, and while investor Jim Rogers admits that he missed the rise, he wouldn't jump in now.
Instead, Rogers, in a terse blog post this month, wrote that if oil stops going down, he would hope to "buy a lot of rubles." His headline on the Russia post: "favorite emerging market" and he lists the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) therein. The ETF is down nearly 7% this year, and has slipped nearly 1% today.
India's LiveMint on Wednesday reported that Rogers -- asked if he would invest in India now -- said, "when you jump on to a moving train, you’ll get hurt." Rogers invested in India on early prospects for reform under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, Rogers - the chairman of Rogers Holdings who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros -- says he exited his investments in India after Modi "did nothing much for two years.” Rogers admitted he "sold too soon" and pointed to the opportunity from India's Goods and Services Tax (GST), a national scheme that should boost government revenue. But implementation has been delayed. And on his blog, Rogers called Modi's demonetization of 85% of the rupees in circulation "theft."
At the start of the year, Rogers was bullish on Russia with prospects for improved relations with President Donald J. Trump's administration. At the time, Rogers told CNBC that the Trump Administration appointment of China critic Peter Navarro was a poor one. Rogers was was critical of a potential tariff on Chinese imports and told MarketWatch that he was worried about debt globally, especially in the United States and China, while interest rates remain low.
Indian markets are at record highs. What is driving this rally? Is there more steam left in this rally, or will the party be over soon?
It is not just Indian markets—what is driving Indian markets is also driving other markets. There are massive amounts of money around, and it needs to go somewhere, and it is going into the markets. India is not the only one going through the roof—look at Europe, America. The central banks have made a lot of free money available—Mr (Donald) Trump has told everyone that everything is going to be OK, and he is come up with some policies which people think will be good such as cutting taxes and building infrastructure… That is why markets in many countries are going up—I think the party will end soon, but I am very, very bad at timing it.
Are Indian markets expensive at this point? Why or why not?
I don’t know the Indian valuations currently. The problem is when the markets start going down, it doesn’t matter if they are cheap, or expensive—all of them will go down. I don’t know of anything that is really cheap in India.
When and by how much do you see an earnings recovery happening for Indian companies?
That is one of the problems—an earnings recovery has not taken place and the markets are going up. This is a problem globally because there is a lot of free money and easy money, and then there is optimism about tax cuts in the US—that is the worry for me—that all of this is not real and is based on free money. Free money, while it lasts, is wonderful, but it always come to an end.
Where does India stand in your EM/Asia preference? Why?
India is not the preferred market for me—it is at an all-time high. I’ve told you before that I don’t prefer to buy when markets are at an all-time high. I don’t want to get on a moving train—when you jump onto it, you’ll get hurt. You won’t get hurt if you buy something that is ignored and sitting in the corner—you’ll not make any money for a while, but you won’t get hurt.
Will Donald Trump’s tax cut plans impact emerging markets in a big way? How much impact do you see on Indian information technology (IT) and pharma sector from visa restrictions and protectionist policies?
If it happens, and Trump does what he says, it is good for the world, because it will revive many parts of the American economy.
When people have more money to spend, they will do it... everyone will be better off for a while, and that is why the markets are going up.
Trump says he will cut taxes and that sounds very good. But how is he going to do all this? Protectionism has never been good for anybody. No one has ever won a trade war. Every one will suffer with protectionism, and if Indians cannot go to America anymore, it may be bad for Indian companies, but it will be good for India.
The smart Indians won’t be rushing to the US any more—they will stay in India and build companies. Or maybe, they will go to China or Germany—but in the end, it will be better for India than the US.
Following investment guru Jim Rogesr I decided a couple of years ago to invest in farmland in foreign countries far from the reach of uncle Sam's long hands , this is the result 8 hectares of fertile farmland I planted this year with fava beans and barley...I am fully satisfied with my investment no regrets whatsoever , now I am learning to drive a tractor always as recommended by investment guru Jim Rogers.
Buckle your seat belts. "V" and Jim discuss all things political, geopolitical and economics. Jim offers sound advice as we move forward through the chaos. Always a great interview with Jim Rogers.
We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news through digital mediums that evangelize our civil liberties.
In this segment, highly successful global investor and author Jim Rogers shares his reason for writing a book to his daughters, as well as his experiences in traveling the entire world - twice. Topics include:
-- A boy, his dreams, and the power of visualizing success -- Where are President Trump's trade wars? -- Investing in "hated" Russia -- Why the world looks different close to the ground -- Where is America headed? -- Common sense and uncommon wisdom from Jim
